question

Time series decomposition can be used to separate or decompose a time series into all of the following components except:

answer

horizontal patterns

question

Which of the following exponential smoothing constant values puts the same weight on the most recent time series value as does a 5-period moving average?

answer

a=.2

question

The method that uses the average of the most recent k data values in the time series as the forecast for the next period is called:

answer

moving averages

question

What kind of model is appropriate if the seasonal fluctuations change over time, growing larger as the dependent variable increases because of a long-term linear trend?

answer

multiplicative model

question

A forecast model of the form Tt=b0+b1t+b2t^2 is called a(n):

answer

quadratic trend equation

question

Which of the following is not present in a time series?

answer

operational variations

question

When historical data on the variable being forecast are either not applicable or unavailable, what kind of forecasting method should be used?

answer

qualitative methods

question

What forecasting method involves selecting a different weight for the most recent k data values in the time series and then computing a weighted average of the values?

answer

Weighted moving average method

question

In the linear trend equation, Tt = b0 + b1t, b0 represents the:

answer

y-intercept of the trend line

question

If the historical data are restricted to past values of the variable to be forecast, the forecasting procedure is called a:

answer

time series method

question

Suppose sales data for the first quarter had a seasonal index of .80. Which of the following statements correctly interprets this figure?

answer

The sales average is 20% below the trend estimate.

question

To model a time series with a seasonal pattern, we treat the season as a(n):

answer

categorical variable

question

When using a categorical variable in a multiple regression model that has k levels, how many dummy variables are needed?

answer

k-1

question

What forecasting method uses a weighted average of past time series values as the forecast; it is a special case of the weighted moving averages method in which we select only one weightβthe weight for the most recent observation?

answer

Exponential Smoothing

question

When using a weighted moving average, if we believe that the recent past is a better predictor of the future than the distant past, we should:

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give larger weights to recent observations.

question

A seasonal pattern

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occurs when a time series plot exhibits a repeating pattern over successive periods.

question

A time series from which the effect of season has been removed by dividing each original time series observation by the corresponding seasonal index is called a:

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deseasonalized time series

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A positive forecast error indicates that the forecasting method _____ the dependent variable.

answer

underestimated

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What kind of forecasting method is based on the assumption that the variable we are forecasting has a cause-effect relationship with one or more other variables?

answer

casual forecasting method

question

The average of the sum of squared forecast errors is called:

answer

mean squared error

question

Seasonal and irregular components with values greater than 1.00 indicate effects _____ the trend estimate and values below 1.00 indicate effects _____ the trend estimate. Which two words correctly complete this sentence?

answer

above; below

question

The time series model that is appropriate in situations where the seasonal fluctuations do not depend upon the level of the time series is:

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an additive model

question

The time series component that reflects gradual variability over a long time period is called:

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a trend

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The difference between the actual time series value and the forecast is called:

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forecast error

question

A time series method that is used to separate or decompose a time series into seasonal, trend, and irregular components is called:

answer

time series decomposition

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What is the component of a time series model that is attributable to multiyear cycles in the time series?

answer

the cyclical component

question

The average of the absolute values of the forecast errors is called:

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mean absolute error

question

The average of all the historical data will always provide the best results as long as the underlying time series is:

answer

stationary

question

If data for a time series analysis is collected on an annual basis only, which component may be ignored?

answer

seasonal

question

Time series regression refers to the use of regression analysis when the independent variable is:

answer

time

question

Three of the following forecasting methods are appropriate for a time series with a horizontal pattern. Which one is not appropriate for a time series with a horizontal pattern?

answer

linear trend regression

question

Which of the following set of circumstances is not needed to carry out quantitative forecasting methods?

answer

When the historical data has a correlation of 1.

question

What type of analysis aims to discover a pattern in the historical data or time series and then extrapolate the pattern into the future?

answer

time series analysis

question

All of the following are true about qualitative forecasting methods except:

answer

they assume that the pattern of the past will continue into the future.