Which of the following statements is NOT true regarding forecasting?
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Forecasting is exclusively an objective prediction.
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The forecasting time horizon that would typically be easiest to predict for would be the
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short range
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A forecast that addresses the business cycle by predicting planning indicators is
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an economic forecast.
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A forecast that projects a company's sales is
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a demand forecast.
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CPFR is
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collaborative, planning, forecasting, and replenishment.
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The goal of CPFR is to
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create significantly more accurate information that can power the supply chain.
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Which of the following statements is NOT true?
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When excess capacity exists, cost can decrease.
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Which of the following is the FIRST step in a forecasting system?
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Determine the use of the forecast.
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Which of the following is the FINAL step in a forecasting system?
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Validate and implement the results.
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Which of the following is a reality each company faces regarding its forecasting system?
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Outside factors that we cannot predict or control often impact the forecast.
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Which of the following forecasting steps comes directly after determining the time horizon of the forecast?
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Select the forecasting model(s).
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Which of the following is a quantitative forecasting method?
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exponential smoothing
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Which of the following is a qualitative forecasting method?
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Delphi method
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Which forecasting model is based upon salespersons' estimates of expected sales?
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sales force composite
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Which of the following is NOT a time-series model?
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multiple regression
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A tracking signal
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is a measurement of how well a forecast is predicting actual values
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A forecasting technique consistently produces a negative tracking signal. This means that
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the forecasting technique consistently over-predicts.
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Forecasting that tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application is referred as
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focus forecasting.
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Which one of the following statements is NOT true about the forecasting in the service sector?
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Detailed forecasts of demand are not needed.
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What forecasting systems combine the intelligence of multiple supply chain partners?
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CPFR
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A six-month moving average forecast is generally better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand:
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is rather stable
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A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a:
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medium range forecast
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The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the:
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duration of the repeating patterns.
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Forecasts used for new product planning, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion, and R&D typically utilize a:
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long-range time horizon.
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Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand?
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associative models
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Gradual upward or downward movement of data over time is called:
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a trend
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The three major types of forecasts used by organizations in planning future operations are
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economic, technological, and demand.
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Which time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent period's demand?
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naïve approach
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When using exponential smoothing, the smoothing constant
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can be determined using MAD.
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Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the SLOWEST to forecast errors?
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.10
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The primary purpose of the mean absolute deviation (MAD) in forecasting is to:
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measure forecast accuracy
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For a given product demand, the time-series trend equation is 53 minus− 4x. The negative sign on the slope of the equation:
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is an indication that product demand is declining.
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A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 150, and 130. The average demand over all months during the three-year time period was 190.
What is the approximate seasonal index for July?
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.684
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