Chapter 4

25 July 2022
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question
Which of the following statements is NOT true regarding​ forecasting?
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Forecasting is exclusively an objective prediction.
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The forecasting time horizon that would typically be easiest to predict for would be the
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short range
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A forecast that addresses the business cycle by predicting planning indicators is
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an economic forecast.
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A forecast that projects a​ company's sales is
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a demand forecast.
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CPFR is
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collaborative, planning,​ forecasting, and replenishment.
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The goal of CPFR is to
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create significantly more accurate information that can power the supply chain.
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Which of the following statements is NOT​ true?
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When excess capacity​ exists, cost can decrease.
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Which of the following is the FIRST step in a forecasting​ system?
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Determine the use of the forecast.
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Which of the following is the FINAL step in a forecasting​ system?
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Validate and implement the results.
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Which of the following is a reality each company faces regarding its forecasting​ system?
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Outside factors that we cannot predict or control often impact the forecast.
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Which of the following forecasting steps comes directly after determining the time horizon of the​ forecast?
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Select the forecasting​ model(s).
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Which of the following is a quantitative forecasting​ method?
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exponential smoothing
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Which of the following is a qualitative forecasting​ method?
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Delphi method
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Which forecasting model is based upon​ salespersons' estimates of expected​ sales?
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sales force composite
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Which of the following is NOT a​ time-series model?
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multiple regression
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A tracking signal
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is a measurement of how well a forecast is predicting actual values
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A forecasting technique consistently produces a negative tracking signal. This means that
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the forecasting technique consistently​ over-predicts.
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Forecasting that tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application is referred as
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focus forecasting.
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Which one of the following statements is NOT true about the forecasting in the service​ sector?
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Detailed forecasts of demand are not needed.
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What forecasting systems combine the intelligence of multiple supply chain​ partners?
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CPFR
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A​ six-month moving average forecast is generally better than a​ three-month moving average forecast if​ demand:
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is rather stable
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A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called​ a:
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medium range forecast
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The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is​ the:
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duration of the repeating patterns.
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Forecasts used for new product​ planning, capital​ expenditures, facility location or​ expansion, and​ R&D typically utilize​ a:
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long-range time horizon.
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Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional​ expenditures, which are related to product​ demand, to predict​ demand?
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associative models
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Gradual upward or downward movement of data over time is​ called:
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a trend
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The three major types of forecasts used by organizations in planning future operations​ are
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economic, technological, and demand.
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Which​ time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent​ period's demand?
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​naïve approach
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When using exponential​ smoothing, the smoothing constant
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can be determined using MAD.
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Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the SLOWEST to forecast​ errors?
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.10
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The primary purpose of the mean absolute deviation​ (MAD) in forecasting is​ to:
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measure forecast accuracy
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For a given product​ demand, the​ time-series trend equation is 53 minus− 4x. The negative sign on the slope of the​ equation:
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is an indication that product demand is declining.
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A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three​ years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were​ 110, 150, and 130. The average demand over all months during the​ three-year time period was 190. What is the approximate seasonal index for​ July?
answer
.684